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12 economist suntribune community saturday jan 15 200a send your 2000 photos to the museum markham residents are invit ed to send photographs of events that happened jan 1 2000 to markham museum for a perma nent collection in its archives if you took your camera along to your new years eve or new years day celebrations and snapped a few photos you can help the museum capture the community and the people of markham as we begin the new century forward the photos to markham museum 9350 hwy 48 markham on l3p 3j3 please include the name and phone number of the sender the location of the photo and the names of the people the museum can be reached at 2944576 after jan 4 for more information parenting workshops jane wiseman mother of four and registered nurse is present ing a series of parenting work shops at the whitchurch- stouffville public library the first workshop how to improve communication and develop good relationships in the home takes place jan 24 from 7 to 9 pm the cost is 30 per person future workshops will be positive disciplining alternatives to punishment and parenting without power struggles and are appropriate for parents with young children through to adolescents parents interested in attend ing should call jane to reserve a seat parents interested in attend ing a sixweek passionate par enting course should also call for information the cost of a six- week course is 80 per person or 150 per couple for more information call 6406693 un deux learning fun daycare montessori school 178 old kennedy road markham north of steeles south of denison ages 18 months to 6 years government subsidy montessori education preliminary french lessons fully qualified ece and montessori teachers tender loving care full and parttime nutritious meals open 700 am to 600 pm please drop in and visit us any time affordable rates trois 905 4706595 quatre weatherproofer ytriple glazed window system 3 panes of glass outperforms r40wall lifetime warranty warmest window on the market encore 450 aiden rd- unit 7 markham tel 905 4700750 18004617644 condos from 745 esmw condos 1st p u n d i n c properties mortgages yf to 95 best available rates private funds available refinancing debt consolidation a specialty for fast professional service call 905 6664986 s4xxki duct cleaning chimney sweep r 4995 500 per vent includes all hook ups no hidden extras per standard home work guaranteed chimney sweeping only s5995 residential commercial 4162823292 snake method used 200 psi l uniquely yours interiors interior design consulting custom made furniture reupholstery refinishing unique gifts for discriminating tastes customized window treatments synergize your current furnishings 191 main street unionville 4745858 1 with the year 2000 now upon us we can confidently say 1999 will be remembered as the year of technology for the most part the stocks of technology companies powered broader market averages such as the tse 300 and the s p 500 value investing an investment style that focuses on the intrinsic value of a company utilizing traditional valua tion measures such as price earnings multiples or price to book ratios has been out of favour for years even the worlds bestknown value investor warren buffett seems to have stumbled a bit the financial post in december 1999 ran a story on mr buffett headlined is warren buffet yesterdays man the article was promoted by the fact that an investment in mr buffetts beckshire hathaway glass a shares on december 10 1999 was off 34 per cent from its 52 week high granted you can never accuse the financial press of being guilty of having a longer term perspective but even hinting at mr buffetts demise does seem just a little premature lets face it we are all guilty of making assumptions about the future by overweighing the significance of events we can see in the present technology has been on a roll but the tech stocks one way ride wont keep going up forever and value investing wont always be out of favour while timing such events isnt easy i cant help but think the economic outlook how evolving is one that will be more conductive to such a possibility this time last year the global economic outlook was well pretty dire the global economy was skirting with the first global recession since the early 1980s the emerging mar- kets were in a shambles commodity prices had plunged and monetary policy had been aggressively eased globally by late last year the international monetary fund had coughed up roughly 180 billion us to bail out various emerging market economies the recovery of the global economy was expected to be slow and protracted a year later the recovery has been surprisingly robust proving once again its always a mistake to underestimate the resiliency of pentup demand that emerges from a period of recession while japans economy is still something of a wild card in terms of global outlook asia minus japan looks poised to return to the robust rates of economic growth we were familiar with before things began to unravel in thailand in 1997 throw in europe growing at 3 per cent this year and the world economy is heading back to its longerterm growth trend rate of 37 per cent maybe even a bit stronger what does this mean for the average investor well for one i think it means some of the better invest ment opportunities will be outside the united states to a large degree the us economy and the us stock market has been the only game in town for a number of years if you think of all the stocks that trade around the world their total market capitalization is now roughly 25 million us of which the us stock market accounts for about half up from 30 per cent in 1990 now contrast those num bers with these the japanese stock market now accounts for only 10 per cent of the global market capitalization down from 40 per cent in 1990 similarly the emerging markets have fallen to 8 per cent of world market cap from 14 per cent prior to the onset of the asian flu in 1997 i have got a simple way of looking at things compared to valuations in the us market these markets look relatively cheap relative to the us i also like europe partly because i think the euro will appreciate against the us 1jk v i tjv w t and canadian dollars this year and partly because europe is now experiencing some of the best growth rates and lowest inflation rates in thirty years like the us market equity valuations are stretched but monetary policy should be a little more marketfriendly than policy in north america what bothers me the most about north america is that years of disinflationary growth has spawned a sense that the business cycle has been tamed inflation is a nonissue and the economy can grow robustly because strong pro ductivity gains emanating from investments in new tech nologies such as the internet i dont entirely disagree with the subdued inflation outlook nor am i discounting the role technology is playing in keeping it subdued but i do think it will drift a little higherin both the us and canada next year for this reason i think short term rates are headed 25- 50 bp higher during the first half of next yearor as high as it takes to cool down the us economy which i expect to continue on a strong growth path into next year as long as both economies remain strong it will keep some upward pressure on bond yields but im not that negative on bonds 1999 was one of the worst years ever for bonds and i do think economic growth will begin to slow by the middle of next year which will set the stage for a mean- ingful rally overall i expect the year 2000 will be a year of transition in many respects economically the primary transition will be away from the american economy which has been the primary engine of global growth for a number of years towards a better balance of growth within the global econ omy if this transition can take place smoothly i also think it will enable a transition within north american equity markets that enables more stocks other than primarily tech nology stocks to participate in the advance of the overall market in 1999 the s p 500 was up roughly 15 per cent but the median stock return the 250th best returning stock on the s p 500 was down 39 per cent thats right down 39 per cent in canada theperfbrmance of the tse 300 has been dominated by one stock nortel networks take nortel and its parent bell canada enterprises out of the index and the returns are less impressive come to think about it isnt this how i started this piece railing on about some of the lofty valuations in the technology sector dont get me wrong i do think technology will continue to be a longterm source of some of the best growth stocks as well the technology sector is not a homogenous group at last count there was about eight distinctively different sub sectors within the overall group and they dont always march in the same direction im just a little concerned that some of the claims of what technology is capable of deliv ering may be overdone and the valuations in many instances equally excessive the tide of the technology boom has been in for a long time a lot of money and manpower has been thrown at the industry and its impact on the economy has not been small between 1995 and 1998 technology while accounting for 8 per cent of the us economy accounted for 35 per cent of its economic growth but booms come to an end and the after effects can be difficult because as mr buffett once said its only when the tide goes out you get to find out whose been swimming naked tim whelan cfp region manager investors group mairi vasil design member of cdeca get that designer look without spending a fortune colour consultation custom window treatment custom made furniture upholstery art accessories call for an appointment 9054150218 markham furniture real factory outlet at real factory prices quality built sofas lifetime warranty on solid wood frame coil spring construction 25 years experience in custom upholstery reupholstery call 9479575 1001 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