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03_V1_WAT_Nov30.indd Th ursday, November 30, 2017 • WATERLOO CHRONICLE • 3Serving your community since 1856 CITY NEWS WATERLOO CHRONICLE CITY NEWSCITY NEWS WATERLOO CHRONICLE Dispelling housing myths Analysts with the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corp. say people aren't ready to move out By Bill Jackson For the Chronicle Housing starts aren't neces-sarily re� ecting demand and desire, according to analysts with the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation who spoke at a local forum held earlier this week in Kitchener. Ontario regional economist Ted Tsiakopoulos said Ontario has aver- aged 75,000 housing starts the past 24 months, but only 60,000 to 65,000 new households were created during the same period. Similarly, there were 3,900 hous- ing starts in Kitchener-Waterloo with between 2,500 and 3,000 households created. Tsiakopoulos said builders might argue his point, but statistics would suggest they're breaking ground on 25 to 30 per cent more homes than they should be. "It's something to think about over the next couple of years," he told an audience at a breakfast put on the Kitchener-Waterloo Association of Realtors. "If these homes are complet- ed and remain unsold at completion, they're going to fall into the listings pool and could create somewhat of a supply overhead the next few years." Senior market analyst Erica McLer- ie said there also seems to be a discrep- ancy between the type of homes being built and the type of homes people want. There has been a shift in the last four or � ve years to more higher-den- sity housing, yet 60 to 70 per cent of the population prefers to reside in single- detached homes, she said. "People are continuing to stay in their homes well into their 80s." What the baby boomers are going to want in housing is going to be very important in the next few years, McLerie conceded. "As people age there's stronger demand for apartments, yes, but it is that single-detached home that is most preferred," she said. "So that myth about a lot of listings coming on the market because you're going to see all these baby boomers downsizing -- statistics are not show- ing that that's happening. People are still staying in their own homes long after retirement. "What we are seeing this year is only 32 per cent of housing starts have been single detached homes. That's a fairly big gap and, as I said, prefer- ences of the population don't change rapidly." But with price of resale homes growing at a much faster pace than wages, affordability has eroded. A greater number of higher density homes are being purchased by an increasing number of one and two -- person households, including a grow- ing number of young couples without children. Due to a growing consumer debt load, the housing market is expected to slow down along with an Ontario economy that's expected to lag behind the rest of Canada in future years. "Ontario has been attracting a lot more migration from other parts of the country because its economy has been growing a little faster, and it's been attracting more migrants from places like Alberta and Quebec," said Tsia- kopoulos. "As these two economies begin to close the gap with Ontario, we see in-migration into Ontario slow- ing down so … that's likely going to restrain housing demand." � e CMHC expects existing home sales will decline "slightly" through 2019 in Kitchener Waterloo, balancing a market that will continue to favour sellers. Building of single detached homes in the local marketplace is down 32 per cent despite demand. FILE PHOTO "So that myth about a lot of listings coming on the market because you're going to see all these baby boomers downsizing -- statistics are not showing that that's happening. People are still staying in their own homes long after retirement." Erica McLerie Senior market analyst CMHC