Ontario Community Newspapers

Oakville Beaver, 29 Jan 2016, p. 03

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continued from p.1 we've been running with for awhile," said Wright. "You're getting constant volatility in the financial markets. We're seeing markets move on a daily basis. There used to be a big move in a month or even a quarter. That volatility is going to be with us for awhile." While "we're seeing fear take over fundamentals," the economic foundations look strong as auto sales in Canada were at a record high in 2015, Wright said -- a trend in recent years. "Consumers, not withstanding all the doomand-gloom of the financial markets, are still spending and that's partly because employment has been so strong. Hopefully, that's a trend that continues," said Wright. The rate at which the economy grows -- in Canada and other countries -- is "a lot lower than what people used to think," he said, noting annual growth of 1.5-2 per cent should now be viewed as a "good news story" in Canada. "Labour force growth is slowing to zero, as the aging demographics work through the numbers. Productivity is going to provide the offset, which we assume will grow to one per cent. More recently, it's been running closer to zero." "Our speed limit is slower, which means little wiggles in the data can put you into some negative numbers, as we saw in 2015." China, for example, is seeing a slowdown partly because of a drop in productivity and labour force as its economy matures and transi- Economic recovery remains uncertain, underwhelming of the Canadian dollar's weakness is tied to oil prices, Wright said, as a cost drop in oil also lowers the dollar's value. "In the current environment, a call on the Canadian dollar is a really a call on oil prices. If we're right, we will see oil prices moving higher going forward. We see growth prospects picking up in Canada," said Wright. "In the near term, there is still some slight downside risk, but overall the trend should be towards a slightly stronger Canadian dollar. We've got it at 75 cents at the end of this year, compared to just more than 70 cents today." He called the labour market in Canada a "pleasant surprise," comparing it to the U.S. and U.K. For the first time in a decade, the Ontario unemployment rate is below the Canadian average and below Alberta's for the first time in two decades, Wright noted. "We're seeing a good news story for Ontario on absolute terms, but also on a relative basis. The job market in Ontario has improved and we expect that trend to continue," said Wright. Kong said most Canadians polled by Ipsos Loyalty (78 per cent) are optimistic about the next 40 years. Numerous people cited Canadian values as the reason for staying positive. "Among those, it is adaptability that most people cited as the reason for their optimism in the future. The generally accepted state of change these days is that change is going to continue to accelerate. It is already at a fast pace." 3 | Friday, January 29, 2016 | OAKVILLE BEAVER | www.insideHALTON.com Ipsos Loyalty Executive Vice-President Canada Ray Kong, centre, answers audience questions during the Oakville Chamber of Commerce State of the Economy annual breakfast Wednesday morning. Also pictured, RBC Senior Economist Craig Wright (right) and Chamber Chair Kerry Colborne. | photo by Nikki Wesley ­ Oakville Beaver tions, Wright noted. "The target for the next five years is something like 6.5 per cent. Last year, the target was seven per cent. It came in at 6.9 per cent, the slowest growth rate since the financial crisis," said Wright. "If (China) achieves the 6.5 per cent target on the size of the economy, it will contribute a full percentage point to global growth." As for oil, the RBC economist said there is uncertainty because usually "the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices. It has a response from both the demand and supply side." Although gas prices haven't dropped as much as oil, they've decreased by about 15 per cent, said Wright, which is equal to an approximate $7-billion tax cut for Canadians. "Few countries produce oil, but all countries use the output of the energy patch, whether consumers or businesses. About 80 per cent of the global economy is net-oil imported," he said. "Global oil prices are going to remain soft for some period of time. We have WTI (West Texas Intermediate) this year averaging $40 a barrel, which gives us $50 at the end of the year and then $55 a barrel next year." While the connection is "overstated," much $ A STEP BEYOND IN CARE Salima Kassam Reg. Chiropodist tax more (before of $70.00 or 's ne coupon , 2016 t coupon. O ry 29 Must presen on Expires Februa Coup est. 1958 Any F OF 00 10. m e it Single es) ingeborg per purchase. · Foot/Arch Pain? · Ingrown Toenails? · Diabetes? · Swollen Ankles? · Corns, Calluses? 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