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WHITBY FREE PRESS, WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 30, 1988, PAGE 7 PAGE SEVEN out on election night, the next election may again be fought on free trade. II If, as expected, an economic downturn takes place, you can bet it will be blamed on free trade. Depending on the severity and length, free trade may· be 'found politically expendable or, at least, modifiable. Already, the announcement of Gillette's closure of its Canadian operations bas added ammunition to the anti- free-trade arsenal. Although I arn opposed to this particular deali and would have prefered a eièrent election resut, I believe even stronger in democracy. The people have made their choice. Canada will be different as a result, but, we would have been different anyway. Since we cannot go in both directions at once, we will neyer know for sure which road was the best one and perhaps seventy-five years from now, this election will be discussed by the historians in the same way that the 1911 reciprocity election was discussed during this one. There are those who say that Mulroney has no mandate to implement free trade because he only got 43% of the vote. Although the argument is comforting to the losing side, it is also academic - our system doesn't work that way. In the final analysis, it is probably John Turner who is to blame for the Tory victory BECAUSE of his good performance in the debate. How do I reach that conclusion? Coing into the election, the Tories were well ahead with the Liberals and NDP roughly tied for second. The Liberals were slipping slowly and the NDP was inching up. The anti-free trade vote was split between the opposition parties but it tended to be regionalized - the Liberals had it in the East, the NDP had it in the West. And then there were the debates. Although the news teams felt there were no clear "knock-out" winners, the voters saw it differently. Turner, the wimp, actually stood up to Mulroney and threw a few good punches - a knock-out wasn't necessary - the underdog won heavily on sentiment. Broadbent sort of got lost on the sidelines. Pollsters usually refer to a party's solid base of support giving the Tories and Liberals about 25% each and the NDP about 15%. I suspect they are aIl really a lot lower. The dramatic shifts in the polls which followed the debate suggested there was nothing solid about any party's support. Many people's already unsettled acceptance of free trade became unglued. At the same time, many people who had shifted to the NDP or Conservatives because of John Turner wavered back to the Liberals. The final few weeks were bedlam. The Tories pulled out the stops and attacked Turner with the most vitriolic campaign I hope we ever see. Turner could not sustain the momentum. The voters wavered around but when their ballots were counted, most had gone conservative. In the endTeWhtyHuewsbitn180adortdasaoelbteBae fiyuti the level of apparent support for free trade was not that1 on Dundas StreeawestdofuBryonStreetcistnowealoedfrBoppers. different than at the beginning. The reason Turner's performance in the debate may have won the Tories the election is because it unglued so many votes. Without that performance, the Liberals almost certainly would have continued to drift down and would have finished third. The anti-free-trade vote would have gone moreWH Y FRE E CES2 substantially to the NDP whose vote was more concentrated. They would have won a lot more seats and might havefactyi prevented the Conservative majority.19Te Whitby Rotary Club ba bgu3edveomet fCetenaiPak In the end the election was more a referandum on John*R.AHucio PulcSoobaahrmnabndndrteietonoPicpl Turner than on free trade. As he bas done in the past, heCarmenSSarlesi won the battle but lost the war. In Saskatchewan and B.C. where the Liberals are weak, the Conservatives were soundly defeated by the NDP and i the East, where the NDP is weak, the Liberals won a sub- stantial majority. In. Ontario and Manitoba the oppositionfrmheTusaNv br28193dionote parties spent a lot of energy on each other, and the Conser- WIB EKYNW vatives won easily with less than 40% of the popular vote. *ReeEcetQatiiadDpt ev ereBok aebe eeetdb Only Alberta and Quebec in ail of Canada voted for free acaain trade. The huge margin of seats (88-13) that the Conser- HrodMcbareieafe12yrssammerfthBarofDecosfteCvl vatives won in those two provinces gave them their majority. SrieAscaino nai.H a rs etfrtreyas The mandate received for the FTA is a somewhat hollow *Jh odi a enr-lce ev fhtyTwsi yacaain one nd.becuse f tisit my i fat bethebes posibl948. E.wa (te Sistba eetined pace nof euWhty Enginary aluber 1933 he itby pos result. The Americans have seen the uncertainty of the Canadian people in accepting it and in order to ensure its political survival in this country, they will have to restrain their protectionist tendencies. th0y er3 8Go If Americans continue to move against Canadian products (as they are quite free to do so under the agreement), they WHITBY CHRONICLE may find the Canadian government, even the Conservatives, - Vandals have broken a temb stone belonging to the Goldsboro family ofBrooklin. forced by political pressure to cancel the deal. At the same - The Women's Christian Temperance Union bas opened a free night school for boys. time, American companies may well be under pressure to * Tue Whitby and Pickering St. Andrews Society is celebrating St. Andrew's day today with maintain jobs in this country just to preserve the a concert. Conservative government. - George A. Ross is building a fine residence at the north-west corner 0r King and Dunlop If the deal is to survive, the Americans will have to preserve the appearance of equal and fair dealing.